Richard (Ryszard) Cieplechowicz
A vacancy count sounds like a simple answer to a housing question. How many homes are empty? But it does not tell you how many homes a renter could move into.
My Tampa Bay vacancy study separates those questions. It uses the Census Bureau's 2020-2024 American Community Survey estimates for 132 selected ZIP Code Tabulation Areas assigned to Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties.
Across that selection, the estimates show 184,380 vacant units. Of those, 81,351, or 44.1%, are classified as seasonal, recreational or occasional use. Another 33,244, or 18.0%, are classified as for rent. Both percentages use vacant units as the denominator. Neither is the share of all homes available to rent.
That distinction matters when comparing areas. Seasonal use is a Census status category, not proof that a property is available for a tenant. The for-rent count is a survey-period estimate, not a list of properties available this morning.
The study checks that all seven vacancy-status categories add up to the vacant total in every row. That does not remove survey uncertainty. Eleven selected areas have fewer than 300 estimated vacant units and are flagged for caution.
These are Census ZCTAs, not USPS delivery ZIPs. A ZCTA can cross a county boundary, and the selected set does not cover every address in the four counties. The summed figures are not complete countywide totals.
If you want to understand the mix of vacant homes, use the categories. If you need a home to rent now, use current listings and verify availability. The study helps with the first job, not the second.
Study, methods and limits:
https://richardcieplechowicz.com/tampa-bay-vacancy-composition-by-zcta-2020-2024/
Archived dataset: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23114340
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 five-year estimates.
More work: https://ryszardcieplechowicz.com/
